Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
